8/9 San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins 7:10pm EST

Over 7.5 -145 (1.5u)

Headed to Miami for Game 1 between the Padres and Marlins. Both teams have been hitting the ball decently well over their last 10 games with the Marlins coming into this one 4-6 in their last 10 and hitting .244 and the Padres 8-2 hitting .290. Marlins just wrapped up their series against the Reds where they dropped the series 3-1, but they did contribute solid runs in this one that we are looking for tonight to push this one over. Against the Reds, they scored 15 runs over 4 games. Jake Burger has come alive for the Marlins as he is hitting 16-42 (.380) with a double and 6 home runs over the last 10. When initially looking at this we eyed the Padres TT in this one, but have to take San Diego's starter Martin Perez and factor him into the equation.

Martin Perez makes his second start for the Padres against the Marlins tonight. Last start (his first as a Padre), Perez went 6 innings allowing 3 hits and1 run and this was the Rockies in San Diego, so have to take that into account. The Marlins do hit him well over 34 ABs with a .382 average a .432 OBP. Faced them in his first start this season on March 29th, he went 4.1 allowing 1 run on 6 hits, 3 walks, and 2 K’s. Marlins hitting .244 in their last 10. Ignore the splits here as this is a completely different environment for Perez, but Perez has struggled on the road. In 7 starts he is 1-3 with a 6.44 ERA in 36.1 innings pitched. On the road, opponents average .329 against him and he's allowed 8 home runs in his 7 starts on the road. We think the Marlins will be able to push some runs across here and help us with the total that we think the Padres will do most of the heavy lifting.

As for the Marlins, looks like they’re going with RHP Edward Cabrera. Padres against RHP this season have excelled,1st in the league with a .275 average. On the season, Cabrera has made 11 starts and is 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 48.1 innings. His last start came against the Braves on 8/4 where he went 5.0 innings allowing just 3 hits, 2 walks, and 8 K's on his way to his second victory of the season. Aside from this start, Cabrera has been vulnerable and allowed 16 runs in 5 starts in the month of July. We expect to see more of this from Cabrera against the hot hitting Padres.

Take the low line of 7.5 here in Miami with some juice and make it a 1.5u play as we think the Marlins and Padres offenses both come to work here tonight and get after the starters in this one.