8/21 Pick of the Day: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves 7:20pm EST

Phillies TT over 3.5 -125 (2u)

Max Fried is pitching for the Braves as we get a struggling left-handed pitcher facing a Phillies lineup that loves hitting lefties. The Phillies have faced Fried twice this year, where he went 0.2 innings, with 2 hits and 3 runs allowed on March 30th, and 6.0 innings with 11 hits and 5 runs allowed on July 5th.

Fried has not been good since the All-Star Break, as he has allowed 13 runs on 16 hits and 11 walks in just 3 starts. In 229 career At-Bats against Fried, the Phillies have a .319 average and .380 OBP. 24 of their 73 hits have been extra base hits, with 11 Home Runs. Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper have been especially deadly against him, combining for a .388 batting average in 121 at bats, with an OBP of .504.

The numbers don’t lie here, and we have to back the Phillies and the meat of their lineup to get after a pitcher that they have a .380 OBP against in a significant number of plate appearances. We expect the Phillies to come out strong in this divisional matchup.