8/13 Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles 6:35pm EST

Over 8.5 -130 (1u)

Despite the recent trend that each of the last 7 games between the Nationals and Orioles at Camden Park have gone under the total runs line, we feel that there is some value here for runs. This total might be a bit low considering these recent trends and we look to exploit it.

On the mound tonight is Jake Irvin of the Nationals vs. Trevor Rogers of the Orioles. On August 2nd, we were successful in betting against Irvin during his start against the Brewers, where he went 5.2 innings, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits, 2 walks. He has only started once since then and that was against the Giants, where he went 5.0 innings, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits, 3 home runs, 1 walk and 4 K’s. He Doesn’t have any appearances vs the Orioles in his career, but has allowed 20 HRs in 24 starts this year. The Orioles hit .258 at home and have launched 89 HRs at Camden Yards in 59 games.

The Trevor Rogers trade with the Marlins was a head scratcher for us, because we feel like he is not a pitcher that a team with World Series aspirations like the Orioles should target at the trade deadline. His last start came against the Jays on August 7th, where he went 5.0 innings, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits. Against the Guards he went 4.1 innings, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits, 1 homer, and 3 walks. Rogers has faced the Nationals in 46 plate appearances and holds a .261 average and a .277 OBP against them. This year, he has faced the Nationals twice, as a part of the Marlins organization. In his latest start against them on June 15th, he went 7.0 innings, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits with 1 Home Run. This game ended 4-0 Nationals. And on April 29th, he went 5.0 innings, allowing 3 runs on 4 hits, 1 homer, and 3 walks. This game ended 7-2 Nationals.

While the recent trend between these teams at Camden Yards says to take the under here, we feel that this may end today as there is potential for runs. Both pitchers are not aces by any means as they have shown this year. The Nationals do not have a good bullpen and while the Orioles have been extremely frustrating at times this year, that cannot deter us from exploiting a good matchup. They must continue to win (and score runs) in order to remain in competition for the AL East title.