POTD Record: 51-29 (+36.56u)

6/28 Pick of the Day: San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox 7:10pm

Over 9.5 -105 (2u)

For today’s POTD, we head to Fenway Park for a matchup between the San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox. This game has POTD material for us as we get 2 good hitting teams facing subpar pitchers in a park that is liable to have a few runs scored in it.

The Padres come into this game hitting .275 against right-handed pitchers and .277 on the road. Their big problem this year has been underperformance against left-handers and we will not get that tonight. The Padres have the second overall highest team batting average in the MLB, have scored the 7th most runs and have the most hits by a wide margin. They have the 5th highest OBP which we love to see when we have the over. They are hitting .265 in June, which is very consistent with how their season has gone.

The Red Sox come into this game hot at the plate, as they are hitting .281 in June and have a 14-8 record. Their OBP is an insane .351 as they have been able to get base runners home and score runs. Boston is hitting .249 at home and .251 against right-handed pitchers. Overall, they have been very solid this season at the plate.

Let’s take a dive into tonight’s pitching matchup:

(SD) Randy Vasquez

10G / 2-4 / 5.10 ERA / 47.2 IP / 31 SO / 1.68 WHIP

(BOS) Nick Pivetta

11G / 4-4 / 4.06 ERA / 57.2 IP / 64 SO / 1.16 WHIP

We have done well selectively fading Randy Vasquez this year in a few of his starts. He comes into this game with a 5.10 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, which could spell danger against a Red Sox lineup that has been making pitchers pay. He allowed 0 runs in his last start against the Brewers, but allowed 6 runs on 12 hits the game before against the Phillies. We were on the over for that Brewers game and cashed out with a grand slam in the 9th inning. We feel that the Red Sox should be able to draw a few walks on Vasquez tonight and get some hits at opportune times.

Nick Pivetta has a 4.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the year, which doesn’t seem horrible. But in looking at his recent starts, we can see that he has given up 10 runs in the last 15.1 innings. He has allowed 4 Home Runs in the last 2 games to boot. Against this Padres lineup, Pivetta has allowed 14 hits in 44 at bats for a .318 average. A team like the Padres will make you pay with runners on base, as we already touched on their ability to get hits and score runs. We feel that this lineup is built to get to pitchers like Pivetta, and they should do just that tonight.

Overall, this play has earned POTD distinction and we believe it to be a good one. Fenway Park plays to the over in the summer, with its quirky design and propensity to allow extra base hits. Let’s get some runs here and watch these two hot hitting teams bat around a little bit.