Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks 9:30pm EST

Over 214.5 -110 (1u)

Going to Dallas where the Mavericks lead the Thunder 2-1. This over/under line is 1-2 this series, as all 3 games have finished right at the line. Game 2 we were on the over, and watch as it fell just short after a poor shooting 4th quarter from both teams. The Mavericks shot just 42% from the field while the Thunder were 46%, lower than their season averages. It is encouraging to see the over almost hit after a less than desirable offensive outing for both teams. This year’s NBA playoffs has seen a return to the mean in games where teams shot poorly in the previous game. We have talked extensively about the offenses of both these teams and their pace of play. All of that holds true tonight as the Thunder will look to set the tone early. All playoffs they have heard how they are too young and did not deserve the number on seed. Today may just be a must win game for them, as they are down 2-1, staring a 3-1 deficit in the face on the road.

The Mavericks must also feel the pressure tonight as this series will look a lot different back in Oklahoma City with either the Mavericks up 3-1, or the series tied 2-2. The trio of Irving, Doncic and Washington Jr. has really stepped up for the Mavericks in the last 2 games, as they combined for an average of 69 PPG in the Mavericks’ last two wins.

Tonight, we will look for the Thunder to push the pace today after they found themselves in a 15-7 deficit after the first 4 minutes of Game 3. Their pace, shooting percentage and points per game are the reason why the got the top seed in the Western Conference. Tonight, we anticipate them to play fast and have active hands on defense, which will lead to transition points and at times, wide open looks.

The Mavericks will continue to find Washington Jr. on the perimeter, as he has the hot hand from 3 point land, with 12 in the last 2 games. Irving and Doncic will once again need to be good on offense and crest scoring opportunity for other players. We expect both teams to shoot a little better from 3 this game, as both were about 33% last game, a decrease from Games 1 and 2 where they shot 40% and 42%.

Give us some more efficient offense tonight and get over 215