
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks 3:30pm EST
Over 217.5 -110 (1u)
Once again, we head to this matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks. In Game 1, we took over 218.5 and in Game 2, over 217.5. Game 1 saw a blowout Thunder win, as Irving and Doncic combined for 39 points and the over fell just short by 7 points. Game 2 was much different, with a 119-110 win by the Mavericks to steal one on the road. We saw the Mavericks shoot much better from the floor this game, as they were surprisingly led by PJ Washington, who had 29 points on 7-11 from 3. Doncic and Irving have yet to have one of their signature games where they combine for 70 points. Game 2 started off at a blistering pace, as there were 130 points scored in the first half. The second half slowed down considerably in terms of shooting percentage and pace, but even with that, the over still cashed easily.
In Game 3, we are getting the exact same line that we have been getting. Our analysis really has not changed for this game. All the facts remain in terms of how we view these teams. The Thunder have one of the league's highest scoring teams at third overall, while the Mavericks are 7th. Both teams were in the top 10 in shooting percentage, as well as 3 Point Shots made per game.
This line has been exceeded in now 6 out of 7 matchups between these two teams this year. Both teams are among the NBA's best in terms of pace and shooting, which suggests quick and efficient possessions, like we have seen already. The Thunder and Mavericks are not very good at defending the 3 Point Line, as they both rank in the bottom third in opponent 3 point field goal percentage. Game 1 saw these teams combine to shoot 40% on 70 3s, while Game 2 saw 41.7% on 67 3s.
Last game, we had expected a positive return to the mean for both team shooting percentage wise and we got just that. This ended up being the difference between the game going over as opposed to under in first game. Efficient possessions are how the Thunder won all season and we should not expect them to change now. Pace should continue to be high in this one. Both teams will shoot the ball a ton, it will just come down to if they can keep that 3 Point percentage high. We think it will as we like over 217.5 here.
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